Mana Tables
The original bopmtg's mana tables were its most-cited reference, and this page brings them back. Every number below is an exact hypergeometric probability, recomputed from scratch, not an approximation.
How to read these tables: all odds assume you are on the play, so by turn T you have seen your opening seven plus T−1 draws. On the draw, add roughly two to four percentage points. Mulligans, scrying, fetching, and card selection are not modeled; they all push your real-world odds slightly higher. For how to choose your targets, see How Many Lands Should You Play?
Hitting your land drops: 60-card decks
Odds of having at least T lands on turn T (your Tth land drop, on time).
| Lands | Turn 2 | Turn 3 | Turn 4 | Turn 5 | Turn 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 82.4% | 63.8% | 44.1% | 27.3% | 15.2% |
| 21 | 85.0% | 68.0% | 49.0% | 31.9% | 18.8% |
| 22 | 87.2% | 71.9% | 53.9% | 36.7% | 22.9% |
| 23 | 89.2% | 75.5% | 58.6% | 41.7% | 27.2% |
| 24 | 91.0% | 78.9% | 63.2% | 46.7% | 31.9% |
| 25 | 92.5% | 81.9% | 67.5% | 51.7% | 36.8% |
| 26 | 93.8% | 84.6% | 71.6% | 56.7% | 42.0% |
| 27 | 94.9% | 87.1% | 75.5% | 61.5% | 47.2% |
| 28 | 95.9% | 89.2% | 79.0% | 66.2% | 52.4% |
Hitting your land drops: 40-card Limited decks
| Lands | Turn 2 | Turn 3 | Turn 4 | Turn 5 | Turn 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 89.2% | 74.9% | 56.8% | 38.7% | 23.7% |
| 16 | 91.8% | 80.0% | 64.0% | 46.7% | 30.9% |
| 17 | 93.9% | 84.5% | 70.7% | 54.6% | 38.8% |
| 18 | 95.6% | 88.2% | 76.7% | 62.3% | 47.1% |
Colored sources: 60-card decks
Odds of having drawn at least one source of a color by a given turn, for each count of that color's sources in your deck. Note this is the chance of seeing the source, not of having it untapped and castable; treat these as upper bounds.
| Sources | Turn 1 | Turn 2 | Turn 3 | Turn 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 74.1% | 79.0% | 83.1% | 86.4% |
| 12 | 80.9% | 85.3% | 88.7% | 91.3% |
| 14 | 86.1% | 89.8% | 92.5% | 94.6% |
| 16 | 90.1% | 93.1% | 95.2% | 96.7% |
| 18 | 93.0% | 95.4% | 97.0% | 98.0% |
| 20 | 95.2% | 97.0% | 98.2% | 98.9% |
| 22 | 96.7% | 98.1% | 98.9% | 99.4% |
And at least two sources of the color, for your CC and 1CC costs. These raw draw odds run a few points below castability benchmarks in the Karsten style, because those condition on having hit your land drops; both framings are useful, but do not mix them.
| Sources | Turn 2 | Turn 3 | Turn 4 | Turn 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 40.0% | 46.7% | 53.1% | 59.1% |
| 12 | 50.7% | 58.0% | 64.6% | 70.5% |
| 14 | 60.5% | 67.8% | 74.1% | 79.5% |
| 16 | 69.1% | 76.0% | 81.7% | 86.2% |
| 18 | 76.4% | 82.6% | 87.4% | 91.0% |
| 20 | 82.4% | 87.7% | 91.6% | 94.4% |
| 22 | 87.2% | 91.6% | 94.6% | 96.6% |
Reading the tables together
The two questions every mana base must answer, hitting land drops and casting colored costs, live in different tables on purpose. A 24-land deck hits its fourth land drop on turn four about three games in four, which is why decks that genuinely need the fourth drop lean toward 25 or 26. And the two-source table shows why double costs demand near-mono mana bases: even 20 sources leaves you shy of 90 percent on turn two.
Spotted an error, or want a table this page does not cover? Write us at contact@bopmtg.net.