Pauper Mana Tables
Pauper mana bases follow the same probability math as any other format, but they operate under a constraint no other Constructed format has: every dual land you can play enters the battlefield tapped. Guildgates, gain lands, karoos, and Evolving Wilds all fix your colours at the cost of a turn. There are no shocklands, no fastlands, and no painlands at common.
That single fact reshapes deckbuilding. In Modern a third colour costs you a little life; in Pauper it costs you tempo, in a format where games are frequently decided by turn five. These tables are built to answer the questions that actually follow from that.
All odds assume you are on the play, so by turn T you have seen your opening seven plus T−1 draws. On the draw, add roughly two to four percentage points. Every number is an exact hypergeometric probability computed from scratch. For the general (non-Pauper) versions of these tables, see the mana tables, and for how to choose your targets see How Many Lands Should You Play?
Hitting land drops at Pauper land counts
Pauper decks generally run fewer lands than their Constructed counterparts, because curves are lower and card selection is cheap. This table covers the range Pauper decks actually play, rather than the 22 to 26 typical of larger formats.
| Lands | Turn 2 | Turn 3 | Turn 4 | Turn 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 65.0% | 39.9% | 20.7% | 9.2% |
| 16 | 69.1% | 44.9% | 25.0% | 12.0% |
| 17 | 72.9% | 49.9% | 29.5% | 15.3% |
| 18 | 76.4% | 54.7% | 34.3% | 18.9% |
| 19 | 79.6% | 59.3% | 39.1% | 22.9% |
| 20 | 82.4% | 63.8% | 44.1% | 27.3% |
| 21 | 85.0% | 68.0% | 49.0% | 31.9% |
| 22 | 87.2% | 71.9% | 53.9% | 36.7% |
Read this alongside your curve. A 17 land deck hits its third land drop on turn three only about half the time, which is fine if your deck functions on two lands and actively bad if it does not.
Coloured sources
Odds of having drawn at least one source of a colour by a given turn:
| Sources | Turn 1 | Turn 2 | Turn 3 | Turn 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 54.1% | 59.3% | 64.0% | 68.3% |
| 8 | 65.4% | 70.6% | 75.1% | 79.0% |
| 10 | 74.1% | 79.0% | 83.1% | 86.4% |
| 12 | 80.9% | 85.3% | 88.7% | 91.3% |
| 14 | 86.1% | 89.8% | 92.5% | 94.6% |
| 16 | 90.1% | 93.1% | 95.2% | 96.7% |
| 18 | 93.0% | 95.4% | 97.0% | 98.0% |
| 20 | 95.2% | 97.0% | 98.2% | 98.9% |
And at least two sources, for your double-coloured costs:
| Sources | Turn 2 | Turn 3 | Turn 4 | Turn 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 17.8% | 21.8% | 25.9% | 30.2% |
| 8 | 28.8% | 34.4% | 40.0% | 45.4% |
| 10 | 40.0% | 46.7% | 53.1% | 59.1% |
| 12 | 50.7% | 58.0% | 64.6% | 70.5% |
| 14 | 60.5% | 67.8% | 74.1% | 79.5% |
| 16 | 69.1% | 76.0% | 81.7% | 86.2% |
| 18 | 76.4% | 82.6% | 87.4% | 91.0% |
| 20 | 82.4% | 87.7% | 91.6% | 94.4% |
The tapped land tax
This is the table that matters most in Pauper and has no equivalent in other formats. Your coloured source count tells you whether you can eventually cast a spell. It does not tell you whether you can cast it on curve, because a Guildgate in your opening hand does not let you play a one drop on turn one.
So count your untapped sources of a colour separately, and read the odds of actually having one when you need it:
| Untapped sources | Opening seven | By turn 2 | By turn 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 39.9% | 44.5% | 48.8% |
| 6 | 54.1% | 59.3% | 64.0% |
| 8 | 65.4% | 70.6% | 75.1% |
| 10 | 74.1% | 79.0% | 83.1% |
| 12 | 80.9% | 85.3% | 88.7% |
| 14 | 86.1% | 89.8% | 92.5% |
| 16 | 90.1% | 93.1% | 95.2% |
| 18 | 93.0% | 95.4% | 97.0% |
If your deck has a critical one drop, this is the number to optimise, not your total source count. A deck with 18 total sources but only 8 untapped ones looks well fixed on paper, yet it fails to produce that colour untapped on turn one more than a third of the time.
Is your splash consistent enough?
The most common Pauper deckbuilding question. You want one card of a third colour, and the real answer depends on what turn you need it. This table gives the odds of having drawn at least one source of a splash colour:
| Splash sources | Turn 2 | Turn 3 | Turn 4 | Turn 5 | Turn 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 44.5% | 48.8% | 52.8% | 56.6% | 60.1% |
| 5 | 52.4% | 57.0% | 61.2% | 65.1% | 68.6% |
| 6 | 59.3% | 64.0% | 68.3% | 72.1% | 75.5% |
| 7 | 65.4% | 70.0% | 74.1% | 77.8% | 80.9% |
| 8 | 70.6% | 75.1% | 79.0% | 82.4% | 85.3% |
| 9 | 75.1% | 79.4% | 83.1% | 86.1% | 88.7% |
| 10 | 79.0% | 83.1% | 86.4% | 89.1% | 91.3% |
| 12 | 85.3% | 88.7% | 91.3% | 93.4% | 95.0% |
A four source splash is a late game card, not a plan. If the splashed card needs to arrive by turn three, you need eight or more sources, at which point it is worth asking whether it is still a splash.
How to count your sources in Pauper
The tables above are only as good as the numbers you feed them, and Pauper's fixing makes counting less obvious than it looks:
- Evolving Wilds and Terramorphic Expanse count as a source of every colour you have a basic for, but never as an untapped source, and they thin rather than fix if you only run one basic of a colour.
- Dual lands that enter tapped count fully in your total source count and not at all in your untapped count. Track the two numbers separately.
- Karoo lands produce two mana but cost you a land drop's worth of tempo and set you back a land if they are removed or bounced. Count them as a source, but do not count them toward hitting land drops on curve.
- Artifact fixers like Prophetic Prism cost mana and a card. They fix reliably but never help you cast anything on turn one or two, so keep them out of your untapped count entirely.
Rules of thumb
- Two colours with a low curve is the format's default for a reason. Third colours are expensive here in a way they are not elsewhere.
- Optimise untapped sources for your cheapest, most important spells, and total sources for everything else.
- If your deck wants to do something on turn one, you cannot afford many tapped lands, no matter how good the fixing looks on paper.
- A splash that must arrive early is not a splash. Either commit to the colour properly or cut the card.
Spotted an error, or want a table this page does not cover? Write us at contact@bopmtg.net.